For the most part, equities took a breather from the recent recovery off March lows. Geopolitical headlines moved markets some, but some of the
forgotten fundamentals are coming back into focus. Overall, 28% of S&P 500 companies have reported 1st quarter earnings and 84% have beat earnings estimates, while 81% have exceeded revenue estimates. though consumers have been downplaying sentiment and stating in surveys about how bad they feel, they continue to exhibit robust spending habits. Consumer spending still makes up nearly two-thirds of Gross Domestic Product. Spending allows companies to make money. Strong earnings have a high correlation to higher stock prices.
Historically speaking, the current bull market is still relatively young. We are at 3.5 years into this current bull cycle, while the average bull market lasts 4.9 years. The average bull also has gained more than 177%, while the current cycle has generated a little more than 98% return. The reality is that recoveries do not "jinx" market cycles, they typically confirm the overall cycle. More than likely, the recovery off the March lows has somewhat reset the clock on this current bull run.
The current bull market cycle has just over 60 new all-time-highs for the S&P 500 Index going back to 2022. Yet, during the bull market run in the late '90s, there were more than 250 ATHs. The difference between investing at all-time-highs versus investing on all other days is negligible. Despite several market pundits touting a "market crash" incoming, the age of the current bull market and the support of strong corporate earnings stand in contrast to some of the fear mongering. The "Sell In May, And Go Away" line that gets repeated around this time in the calendar year has been shown time and again to be nothing more than a nursery rhyme. If investors followed this flawed advice 10 years ago and sold on the first trading day in May, only to re-enter the market on the first trading day in November each year, an opportunity loss of more than 200% return would have been realized versus just staying invested. Investors should be more focused on market fundamentals and the Fed meeting this week instead of trusting market pundits and "old wives' tales" about investing.
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Disclosures
The information contained herein is for informational purposes only and is developed from sources believed to be providing accurate information. The opinions expressed are those of the author, are for general information, and should not be considered a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security. The decision to review or consider the purchase or sell of any security should not be undertaken without consideration of your personal financial information, investment objectives and risk tolerance with your financial professional.
Forecasts or forward-looking statements are based on assumptions, may not materialize, and are subject to revision without notice.
Any market indexes discussed are unmanaged, and generally, considered representative of their respective markets. Index performance is not indicative of the past performance of a particular investment. Indexes do not incur management fees, costs, and expenses. Individuals cannot directly invest in unmanaged indexes. The S&P 500 Composite Index is an unmanaged group of securities that are considered to be representative of the stock market in general.
Past Performance does not guarantee future results.