Markets continue their run off the March lows as investors start to shake off the back-and-forth of geopolitics. Some investors are left wondering why equities have risen so quickly in such a short period of time. 
In our view, the information was there all the time, investors were just looking in the wrong place. This week's musings are inspired by the 1998 movie "The Wedding Singer" starring Adam Sandler and Drew Barrymore. Here is some trivia about the movie:
- This movie was the third in a series of hits for Sandler. His previous two films "Billy Madison" (1995) and "Happy Gilmore" (1996) put him on the map, but this film made him immensely popular with American audiences. The budget was only $18 million, but the box office take was more than $123 million - far surpassing the box office receipts for either of his previous two films.
- Carrie Fisher spent six months, uncredited, on the script for this film. She specifically worked on adding dimension to Drew Barrymore's character Julia.
- The role of Glenn, Julia's fiance, was offered to several actors before landing on Matthew Glave. Director Frank Coraci wanted Christopher McDonald for the role of Glenn, but Sandler vetoed it despite the fact that McDonald and Sander are friends. Sandler said McDonald will always be known as Shooter McGavin. Ben Stiller, David Spade, and Matthew Broderick were also considered, but they were not seen as mean enough.
- The scene at the bank in which Robbie interviews for a job is based on a Saturday Night Live skit involving Tom Hanks and Kevin Nealon. Nealon reprises the role of the bank manager in the movie.
- Despite the title, Robbie only sings at two weddings in the film as he was stood up at his own wedding. He sings songs at a Bar Mitzvah and on an airplane in the film.
- Natalie Portman, Jennifer Garner, Cameron Diaz, Katie Holmes, and a host of other actresses were considered for the role of Julia.
- Sandler wanted Chris Farley to appear in a cameo role as the ticket agent at the airport that books Robbie on a flight to Vegas to stop Julia from marrying Glenn. New Line Cinema refused to cast Farley as he was considered a liability after entering rehab. Sadly, Farley passed away from a drug overdose a little more than a month before the premier of this film.
Here's what we've seen so far this week...
Spin Investors Right 'Round.The opening scene of "The Wedding Singer" gives us Robbie singing the 1984 hit song "You Spin Me Round" by the band 
Dead or Alive. That's probably how investors feel after a conflict-induced pullback and the 2nd fastest recovery in equities since 1982. To top that off, we now have market pundits calling for markets to "burst" literally off the heels of a recovery. Noted economist Harry Dent stated earlier this week that the "Everything Bubble" is soon to burst. To be fair, Mr. Dent does cast some skepticism, even in his own prediction. But, I would be remiss in failing to mention Mr. Dent's previous prediction that the "biggest single crash year in our lifetimes" would be in 2024, yet equities were up more than 20% in 2024. In his most recent prediction, he titles the current bull market as "the biggest, longest-lasting bubble in history." Perhaps Mr. Dent should do 
a little more homework. The period of April 1994 to March 2000 was a bull market that lasted nearly 6 years and saw the S&P 500 gain more than 245%. So far, this current bull market started in October 2022 and is only 3.5 years old with a return on the S&P 500 of 98%. Regardless of comparisons, the point is that making wholesale statements about crashes and bubbles is a little irresponsible as no one can predict market outcomes accurately. But, even a broken clock is correct twice a day. Other market pundits have already started spouting the "Sell In May, And Go Away" line that gets repeated around this time in the calendar year. However, it has been shown time and again that this market belief is nothing more than a nursery rhyme. If investors followed this flawed advice 10 years ago and sold on the first trading day in May, only to re-enter the market on the first trading day in November each year, an opportunity loss of more than 200% return would have been realized versus just staying invested. Most studies have shown that the "Sell In May" philosophy actually worked less than half the time. Unlike the advice of Mr. Dent, investors should follow the advice of a trusted financial advisor to avoid getting sucked in by the market's version of an "old wives' tale." P.S. - it's a little ironic that Mr. Dent's latest comments appeared in "ThinkAdvisor" given his penchant for instructing investors to ignore their financial advisors.
That Information Would Have Been More Useful Yesterday! Robbie finally greets his former fiance after she stood him up at the alter and tries to 
figure out what happened. She lets him know she doesn't want to spend her life with a "wedding singer." To which he responds, "Once again, things that could have been brought to my attention YESTERDAY!" Perhaps that's how investors feel when questioning this rally off the March bottom. However, the information was right under their noses all along. First, though consumers have been downplaying sentiment and stating in surveys about how bad they feel, they continue to exhibit robust spending habits. Consumer spending still makes up nearly 
two-thirds of Gross Domestic Product. Spending allows companies to make money. Second, if consumers are making money and companies are managing their expenses correctly, their stock prices will move higher. When this happens, equities out-perform. Currently, first quarter corporate earnings releases show more than 80% of S&P 500 companies are out-pacing earnings and revenue estimates. That's higher than the 5-year average for both metrics. The correlation between equity returns and corporate earnings is self-evident. As long as consumer spending remains strong and corporate balance sheets remain relatively healthy, higher equity returns should be expected, despite temporary geopolitical shocks.
Jinx The Band? When Linda realizes the grass is not so green on the other side, she seeks to win Robbie back by showing up at his apartment. 
Robbie discovers her wearing one of his shirts, to which he responds, "Please get out of my Van Halen t-shirt before you jinx the band and they break up." Of course, the band did break up when David Lee Roth left the Van Halen in 1985 over "creative issues." Historically speaking, the current bull market is still relatively young. We are at 3.5 years into this current bull cycle, while the average bull market lasts 4.9 years. The average bull also has gained more than 177%, 
while the current cycle has generated a little more than 98% return. The reality is that recoveries do not "jinx" market cycles, they typically confirm the overall cycle. More than likely, the recovery off the March lows has somewhat reset the clock on this current bull run. Just because the market set a new all-time-high last week doesn't mean it's time to sit on cash or fail to invest. Each year is different in the markets. Some years have very few new all-time-highs, while other calendar years are flush with new ATHs. The current bull market cycle has just over 60 new all-time-highs for the S&P 500 Index going back to 2022. Yet, during the bull market run in the late '90s, there were more than 250 ATHs. The difference between investing at all-time-highs versus investing on all other days is negligible. Investors should remain focused on their risk tolerance and financial goals rather than trying to time the market.
Enjoy the sage wisdom of The Wedding Singer...
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The information contained herein is for informational purposes only and is developed from sources believed to be providing accurate information. The opinions expressed are those of the author, are for general information, and should not be considered a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security. The decision to review or consider the purchase or sell of any security should not be undertaken without consideration of your personal financial information, investment objectives and risk tolerance with your financial professional.
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