Investors Need To Take It One Day At A Time

Scott Poore, AIF^®, AWMA^®, APMA^®

May 22, 2026

Markets will usher in a new Federal Reserve Chairman this week, news on the Middle East continues to sway investors, and economic data is somewhat upbeat. With the back-and-forth in Middle East negotiations, investors need to simply take it one day at a time. This week's musings are somewhat related to last week's musings and are inspired by the 1975 TV show "One Day At A Time." Here is some trivia about the show:

The show first aired on December 16, 1975 and enjoyed a strong 9-year run on CBS until 1984. While a comedy, the show also featured cultural issues from that time such as divorce, single mothers, teenage issues, etc. While the show never reached #1 on the Nielsen ratings, it was consistently in the top 10 annually until its final season.
The connection to last week's musings is the real life marriage between the show's youngest actor, Valerie Bertinelli and lead guitarist from Van Halen, Eddie Van Halen. The couple were married form 1981 to 2007.
The show won two Emmy Awards, one for Outstanding Directing and the other to Par Harrington for Outstanding Supporting Actor for his role as Schneider. Much of the comic relief of the show centered around Schneider as the apartment complex's handyman.
The older daughter in the show was played by Mackenzie Phillips, whose father was John Phillips of the folk-rock group The Mamas & The Papas. Mackenzie was written off the show in 1980 while she dealt with drug addiction, something she chronicled in her memoir "High on Arrival" in 2009. She was brought back to the show in 1982, but collapsed on set in the final season, prompting the producers to permanently write her off the show.
Actresses Phillips and Bertinelli were only five months apart in age, but since Bertinelli was technically younger, she was cast as the little sister on the show. Bertinelli claims Phillips was mean to her on set during the first season. Eventually, the two became close and Bertinelli was one of the few in Hollywood who stood by Phillips after her memoir was published.
According to cast members, Norman Lear would videotape "All In The Family" episodes and then use the audience laughter from that show to fill in dead air on "One Day At A Time."

Here's what we've seen so far this week...

One Day At A Time. The conflict in the Middle East and the price of oil are primarily driving the ship of market returns for the time being. While not a 1-to-1 correlation, the price of oil has moved markets in either direction since the beginning of the conflict between the U.S. and Iran. Over the last 58 trading days since the conflict began, when oil was higher, equities were lower and vice-versa.¹ This trend has made it difficult for investors to find opportunities in the market due to the back-and-forth nature of the negotiating. The good news is that there appears to be some progress toward an end to the conflict. While there are still some sticking points for both sides, there appears to be some progress made, according to public comments made by U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio.² This morning, a negotiating team from Qatar arrived in Tehran in coordination with the U.S. to secure a deal to end the conflict.³ There is unlikely to be significant movement higher in equities until there is a final resolution to the conflict. Gas prices remain elevated, and according to last week's inflation data, energy costs are driving prices higher across multiple products and services. Investors will have to remain patient until more concrete information about a resolution to the conflict emerges.

Do Markets Need A Handyman? Markets will prepare to usher in a new Federal Reserve Chairman today as Kevin Warsh will be sworn in as the latest individual to assume the office. In public statements, Warsh has vowed to move the Fed towards "data-heavy" versus "interventionist", narrow focus on price stability and maximum employment, and balance sheet reduction. Time will tell if Warsh is able to stick to those strategies. As it stands, the probability of rate cuts or rate hikes has barely moved as Warsh prepares to be sworn in. It is doubtful that those probabilities change until the Middle East conflict is solved. The labor market continues to show slight improvement. The payrolls reports from the previous two months have shown solid job growth exceeding 100,000 jobs and beating market expectations.⁴ Jobless Claims have been hovering around 200,000 so far this year. As a reminder, claims usually jump into the 300,000+ range prior to recessions.⁵ April saw those switching jobs experience better opportunities. For those already employed, job switchers were able to improve their pay by the most in almost 3 years in April. Equity markets are poised for a positive finish to the week heading into the Memorial Day weekend on renewed hopes of a deal in the Middle East. There is much to be thankful for as we celebrate those who gave their lives willingly to protect our freedoms!

Click here to view the opening theme of "One Day At A Time"...

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